Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) Shares Gap Down – Should You Sell?

Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) shares gapped down before the market opened on Wednesday . The stock had previously closed at $41.99, but opened at $37.61. Moderna shares last traded at $37.21, with a volume of 4,964,476 shares trading hands.

Key Stories Impacting Moderna

Here are the key news stories impacting Moderna this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 results beat expectations: Moderna reported a narrower-than-expected loss (GAAP EPS -$2.11) and revenue above estimates, driven by stronger COVID-19 vaccine sales; management reiterated a ~10% revenue growth target for 2026, pushing near-term sentiment. Moderna beats fourth-quarter revenue estimates
• Positive Sentiment: Unusually large bullish options flow: Traders bought about 146,946 call contracts Friday (≈75% above typical call volume), signalling outsized short-term bullish positioning that can amplify upside moves if momentum continues.
• Neutral Sentiment: Technical picture is mixed but showing early bull signals: Several technical analysts point to support holding after a sharp YTD rally and highlight possible breakout targets above recent resistance — this supports momentum trading but also implies higher volatility. Moderna Price Forecast: Breakout Signals New Bull Trend
• Neutral Sentiment: Pipeline & operational updates: Norovirus Phase 3 is fully enrolled and other trials progressed; management also highlighted international manufacturing capacity — positive for long-term value but timeline-driven. Q4 press release / slide deck
• Negative Sentiment: Major regulatory setback: The U.S. FDA issued a refusal-to-file for Moderna’s new mRNA flu vaccine application, citing trial issues; Moderna has requested a Type A meeting, but the decision raises near-term uncertainty for one of its key pipeline catalysts and could pressure valuation. FDA refuses Moderna’s application for new mRNA flu vaccine
• Negative Sentiment: Volatility and mixed market reaction: Despite the beat, some outlets note the stock’s sharp pullback from the 52-week high and intraday swings after earnings — a sign investors are split between near-term optimism and longer-term execution/regulatory risks. Moderna Reports a Narrower-Than-Expected Loss. The Stock Falls After Earnings.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

Several analysts have commented on the stock. TD Cowen reiterated a “hold” rating on shares of Moderna in a research note on Thursday, January 29th. Jefferies Financial Group reaffirmed a “hold” rating on shares of Moderna in a research note on Monday, January 5th. Morgan Stanley lowered their price target on shares of Moderna from $30.00 to $28.00 and set an “equal weight” rating for the company in a report on Friday, December 12th. Citigroup reiterated a “neutral” rating on shares of Moderna in a report on Monday, January 19th. Finally, UBS Group downgraded shares of Moderna from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating and reduced their target price for the company from $40.00 to $34.00 in a research note on Tuesday, January 6th. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, eleven have given a Hold rating and five have given a Sell rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Reduce” and an average target price of $28.77.

Moderna Trading Up 5.3%

The company has a market capitalization of $16.50 billion, a PE ratio of -5.23 and a beta of 1.32. The firm’s 50-day simple moving average is $37.26 and its 200-day simple moving average is $29.87.

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Friday, February 13th. The company reported ($2.11) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of ($2.79) by $0.68. The firm had revenue of $678.00 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $611.14 million. Moderna had a negative return on equity of 29.81% and a negative net margin of 139.61%.Moderna’s quarterly revenue was down 33.2% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the previous year, the business earned ($2.91) earnings per share. As a group, analysts anticipate that Moderna, Inc. will post -9.61 EPS for the current year.

Insider Activity at Moderna

In other news, Director Noubar Afeyan sold 23,853 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, December 11th. The shares were sold at an average price of $29.48, for a total transaction of $703,186.44. Following the transaction, the director directly owned 3,924 shares in the company, valued at approximately $115,679.52. This trade represents a 85.87% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this link. Corporate insiders own 10.90% of the company’s stock.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Large investors have recently made changes to their positions in the stock. FORA Capital LLC purchased a new position in Moderna in the fourth quarter valued at about $760,000. Stifel Financial Corp boosted its holdings in shares of Moderna by 290.8% in the 4th quarter. Stifel Financial Corp now owns 57,253 shares of the company’s stock valued at $1,688,000 after buying an additional 42,604 shares in the last quarter. Hudson Bay Capital Management LP grew its position in shares of Moderna by 344.7% in the 4th quarter. Hudson Bay Capital Management LP now owns 244,594 shares of the company’s stock worth $7,213,000 after buying an additional 189,594 shares during the last quarter. Neuberger Berman Group LLC raised its stake in shares of Moderna by 18.2% during the 4th quarter. Neuberger Berman Group LLC now owns 93,920 shares of the company’s stock worth $2,770,000 after acquiring an additional 14,440 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Commerce Bank raised its stake in shares of Moderna by 7.1% during the 4th quarter. Commerce Bank now owns 34,667 shares of the company’s stock worth $1,022,000 after acquiring an additional 2,312 shares in the last quarter. 75.33% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

Moderna Company Profile

Moderna, Inc is a biotechnology company headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, specializing in messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. The company’s platform leverages synthetic mRNA to instruct cells to produce proteins that can prevent or treat diseases. Since its founding in 2010, Moderna has advanced from early-stage research into a broad pipeline of vaccine and therapeutic candidates designed to address infectious diseases, rare genetic disorders and chronic illnesses.

Moderna’s flagship product is its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, which was the first of its kind to receive emergency use authorization and later full approval in multiple jurisdictions.