Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) executives highlighted record per-share shareholder value metrics, higher adjusted operating income, and a growing contribution from alternative investments during the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings call. Management also discussed continued momentum in U.S. municipal bond insurance, expanded secondary-market activity, resolutions of several troubled exposures, and a new strategic push into life and annuity reinsurance following an acquisition completed in January 2026.
Key 2025 financial and per-share metrics
CEO Dominic Frederico said the company reached new per-share highs at year-end 2025 for several key measures, including adjusted book value of $186.43, adjusted operating shareholders’ equity of $126.78, and shareholders’ equity of $125.32. He added that Assured Guaranty earned adjusted operating income per share of $9.08 in 2025, up from $7.10 in 2024.
Rosenblum cited several drivers for the quarter-over-quarter increase, including:
- A $23 million pre-tax gain linked to a loss mitigation strategy
- Higher earnings from alternative investments
- Lower loss expense
For the full year, Rosenblum said results also benefited from a $103 million gain tied to the resolution of litigation involving Lehman Brothers International (LBIE), $15 million in fees related to workout credits, and a $20 million increase in the pre-tax contribution from the asset management segment.
Financial guarantee production and municipal market activity
COO Rob Bailenson said Assured Guaranty produced $286 million of present value of new business production (PVP) in 2025, and characterized the aggregate credit quality of the transactions as higher than in recent years. Bailenson said U.S. municipal bond insurance remained in strong demand amid a second consecutive year of record municipal issuance.
In U.S. public finance, the company generated $206 million in PVP in 2025, including $132 million in the second half, which management said was a 19% increase over the second half of 2024. Bailenson noted that PVP in 2025 was influenced by the mix of business, with fewer large BBB-category transactions than in 2024, resulting in a portfolio weighted more toward higher-rated credits that require less capital but generate less premium.
Overall, Assured Guaranty guaranteed more than $27 billion of municipal par in 2025, up 16% from 2024, across more than 1,500 primary and secondary market policies. Bailenson said Assured Guaranty led the bond insurance industry with 58% of new issue insured par sold, representing more than $25 billion and a “15-year high.” New issue deal count rose 15% year over year to more than 900 transactions.
Secondary market expansion, large transactions, and underwriting mix
Management emphasized progress in the U.S. municipal secondary market. Bailenson said secondary insured par written increased more than 240% year over year to approximately $2 billion, generating $44 million of PVP. He attributed the growth to multi-year technology and process investments, including new market analysis tools, real-time data integration, and improved workflows aimed at accelerating underwriting and execution.
The company also discussed demand for insurance on large new issues. Bailenson said Assured Guaranty insured 51 primary market issues with approximately $100 million or more in insured par, totaling about $12.6 billion, which he said was the highest annual number of $100 million-plus municipal transactions in over a decade. He highlighted several large transactions during 2025, including:
- $1.0 billion for the Dormitory Authority of the State of New York
- $844 million for the Downtown Revitalization Public Infrastructure District in Utah
- $730 million for the Alabama Highway Authority
- $650 million for the Massachusetts Development Finance Agency on behalf of Beth Israel Lahey Health
- $600 million for the New York Transportation Development Corp’s new Terminal One at JFK Airport
Bailenson also said the company saw increased use of its insurance among underlying AA-rated credits. Across primary and secondary markets, Assured Guaranty issued more than 160 policies totaling approximately $7 billion of insured par—an increase of about 60% year over year for both metrics—though management noted these transactions typically produce less premium per dollar of par while requiring less capital.
International and structured finance, investment performance, and capital management
Outside the U.S. municipal market, Bailenson said non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance contributed $80 million of PVP in 2025: $37 million from non-U.S. public finance (including $18 million in the fourth quarter) and $43 million from global structured finance (including $20 million in the fourth quarter). He cited activity across U.K. and EU infrastructure finance, U.K. sub-sovereign secondary transactions, and structured finance transactions including fund finance facilities, insurance securitizations, an upsize providing protection on an Australian bank lending portfolio, and consumer receivables.
On investments, Rosenblum said alternative investments had fair value of more than $1 billion as of December 31, 2025, compared with $884 million at December 31, 2024. Alternative investments generated $47 million of pre-tax adjusted operating income in the fourth quarter and $160 million for the full year, which he said represented a 33% year-over-year increase. Frederico said alternative investments had produced an annualized and inception-to-date internal rate of return of 13% through year-end 2025, and Rosenblum compared that with a fixed maturity portfolio average yield of 4.16% over the past three years.
In capital management, Frederico said the company repurchased 12% of common shares outstanding as of December 31, 2024, meeting a $500 million 2025 repurchase target, and paid $69 million in dividends. Rosenblum said Assured Guaranty repurchased 5.8 million shares at an average price of $85.92, and had $204 million remaining under authorization. The board approved a 12% increase in the quarterly dividend from $0.34 to $0.38, which management said marked 14 consecutive years of dividend growth.
During the Q&A, management said it saw BBB issuance returning in the fourth quarter and expected that trend to continue into 2026, noting a strong start to the first quarter and early closings in U.S. public finance and European infrastructure. Management also provided updates on large exposures, including an upgrade of Southern Water and a focus on Thames Water as the remaining key U.K. water utility exposure. On Brightline, executives said they remained confident in their position, pointing to more than $4 billion of subordination below them and improving ridership trends.
Frederico and Rosenblum also reiterated the strategic move into life and annuity reinsurance. Frederico said the company acquired Warwick Re Limited in January 2026—renamed Assured Life Reinsurance Limited—to focus on reinsuring fixed-term annuities, including MYGAs and pension risk transfer annuities. In response to a question on capital priorities, management said capital deployment between buybacks and the reinsurance platform would depend on market opportunities, while maintaining a commitment to capital management.
About Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO)
Assured Guaranty Ltd is a Bermuda-domiciled provider of financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance products serving public finance, infrastructure and structured finance markets. The company’s primary business activity is credit enhancement, whereby it guarantees the timely payment of principal and interest on debt obligations issued by municipal and infrastructure entities. By combining rigorous risk assessment with active portfolio management, Assured Guaranty helps issuers access capital at more attractive rates while protecting investors against credit events.
In its public finance segment, the company underwrites municipal bond insurance for state and local governments, public-private partnerships and essential infrastructure projects.
