Sampo Oyj (LON:0HAG) reported what CEO Morten Thorsrud called “an excellent start to 2026,” citing strong underwriting performance across Nordic and U.K. operations, improved cost ratios, and favorable underlying risk ratio development. The company raised its full-year underwriting result guidance and announced a new share repurchase program of EUR 350 million.
Underwriting performance and guidance raised
Thorsrud said insurance revenue increased 8% year-over-year, supported by “excellent GVP growth over the last 12 months,” though he noted that reported gross written premiums in the first quarter were “a bit softer” due to several mix and timing factors. On claims, he said the Nordics experienced a wintry start followed by an early spring and “markedly more benign conditions towards end of the quarter,” resulting in weather claims that were more favorable than anticipated at the beginning of the year.
Following the first-quarter results, Sampo increased its 2026 outlook. Thorsrud said the company now expects:
- Insurance revenue growth of 6% to 8%, with insurance revenue of EUR 9.6 billion to EUR 9.8 billion
- Underwriting result growth of 3% to 9%, with an underwriting result of EUR 1,525 million to EUR 1,625 million
Thorsrud attributed the higher underwriting result guidance mainly to “better than expected weather and large claims outcome in the first quarter.” He also said 2026 is the last year of Sampo’s current strategic period, and the company has set an investor update for Nov. 17.
Segment trends: Nordic growth led by private lines; U.K. remains competitive
In Private Nordic, Thorsrud reported 6% top-line growth supported by positive development across countries and product lines. Norway “continued to stand out” with 13% growth, which he said was largely driven by rate increases. Finland’s growth was driven by higher customer count and new sales.
In Sweden, Thorsrud said soft new car sales continued to weigh on white-label motor insurance, though he highlighted that the If-branded motor portfolio grew 10% in the quarter.
In the U.K., he described a competitive but “rational” market with modest price increases in the quarter. Sampo recorded 3% policy growth, which Thorsrud said helped offset the effect of lower average premiums. Management said the market remains in a “wait and see mode,” with Sampo focused on underwriting discipline and portfolio quality.
During Q&A, Thorsrud added that U.K. prices were “slightly down at the very beginning of the year” following favorable reinsurance renewals across the market, with “a gradual uptick in the pricing” after that. He also said that following the GIPP re-reform, pricing between new business and renewals is “more or less one to one.”
Commercial lines: SME steady, large corporate more price-sensitive
In corporate lines, Thorsrud said the competitive landscape is mixed. The Nordic SME portfolio within Nordic Commercial delivered 4% top-line growth, supported by digital sales and customer growth. However, he said the large corporate market is “more price sensitive,” and Sampo lost a few larger clients in Nordic Industrial and the upper portion of Nordic Commercial.
Thorsrud characterized the client losses as “normal volatility,” emphasizing that renewal patterns can make first-quarter gross written premium growth appear softer, because large parts of the Industrial and upper Commercial books renew in the first quarter, while private and SME business renews more evenly through the year. He also said Sampo saw “another quarter of favorable large claim outcome,” supported in part by prior de-risking actions to reduce large property exposure, and noted the company benefited from lower reinsurance prices at the Jan. 1 renewal.
Topdanmark integration: synergy phasing updated
Thorsrud said Sampo updated the phasing of Topdanmark synergies after faster-than-expected realization in 2025. The company now expects a 2026 synergy run-rate of EUR 105 million and EUR 125 million in 2027, while reiterating its commitment to achieve at least EUR 140 million by the end of 2028.
He said the pace of synergy realization is expected to become more stable after 2026 as the mix shifts from corporate center synergies toward operational benefits. In response to analyst questions, management stressed that reported synergies are run-rate figures and “not yet fully materializing in the P&L.” CFO Lars Kufall Beck said the group remains committed to 40 basis points of year-on-year improvement in its Nordic cost ratio over the coming years, while noting that the speed of improvement may flatten as IT-related work remains ahead.
Discussing Denmark more broadly, Thorsrud said the integration created some expected turbulence in 2025, including a small drop in private retention, but he said retention is now “gradually improving” and that distribution capacity has been rebuilt in private and SME lines. He said he is optimistic that “the most difficult part of the integration is now behind us.”
Capital position, buyback, and key risk topics
CFO Lars Kufall Beck said the first quarter was volatile for capital markets and that a flattening yield curve negatively impacted results. He said negative investment income was driven primarily by “legacy assets, NOBA and Nexi,” and that excluding those positions, investment returns were “broadly flat” despite the volatility. He also highlighted stable interest and dividend income, and said Sampo’s relatively short fixed-income duration positions the portfolio to reinvest at higher rates.
On solvency, Beck said Sampo’s balance sheet remained robust with low market sensitivity. Excluding NOBA, which he said had a net positive solvency impact, market movements reduced solvency by 4 percentage points in the quarter, which was “more than offset” by strong operational performance. Beck also noted that Sampo received Swedish FSA approval in late March to extend its partial internal model to cover Danish operations formerly under Topdanmark, adding about 6 percentage points to solvency in Q1. He said extending the internal model to include U.K. operations is the next phase but described it as a longer project requiring additional data and experience.
Sampo announced a new EUR 350 million share buyback program. Beck said approximately EUR 250 million is based on the 2025 operating result and EUR 100 million is tied to proceeds from the February NOBA sale. He added that the company has now returned “half of the up to EUR 500 million” referenced at its last capital markets day related to distributions from legacy assets, with timing for the remainder dependent on the NOBA sell-down process. He also said Sampo’s updated distribution policy deducts a full 90% of quarterly operating results as a distribution accrual, reflecting a commitment to return around 90% of operating results through dividends and buybacks in a typical year.
Management also addressed inflation risk tied to higher oil prices amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Thorsrud said Sampo has limited operational exposure to the Persian Gulf region and “zero exposure to Iran.” He said Nordic claims inflation has been coming down over the past 12 months but remains elevated in some countries, particularly Norway. He described near-term inflation risk as most relevant for motor insurance via higher spare-parts freight costs, while property is “more labor-intensive and less affected short term.” In the U.K., he said inflation risk is higher due to business mix and exposure to total losses and bodily injury claims, adding that pricing already factors in an expected uptick in inflation.
Another focus was the Danish Supreme Court ruling on workers’ compensation. Beck called it an adverse outcome for the Danish insurance industry and said Sampo expects the Danish state to take responsibility for the retrospective consequences. He said Sampo’s “current best estimate” is that the potential impact should be covered within existing reserves, largely due to the company’s ENID (Events Not In Data) reserves built over many years for this type of risk, meaning no additional provision is needed and the effect on net profit and solvency is expected to be limited. In Q&A, Beck said scenario analysis suggests a comparable net-of-tax impact ranging between EUR 80 million and EUR 160 million, with the company’s best estimate “falling well into that range.”
Beck said variables include historical market share assumptions and the pickup rate of eligible cases being reopened; he cited the Section 17a ruling from early 2025 as one reference point, where the pickup rate after more than a year has been about 5%, compared with scenario assumptions that could use 20%. He also said that if ENID reserves are drawn down, they would be rebuilt over time rather than quarter-to-quarter.
About Sampo Oyj (LON:0HAG)
Sampo Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of non-life insurance products and services in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through If, Topdanmark, Hastings, Mandatum, and Holding segments. It offers property, casualty, liability, accident, sickness, household, homeowner, motor, travel, marine, aviation, transport, forest, livestock, health, workers compensation, car, van, and bike insurance services, as well as reinsurance services.
