Executives from J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ:JBHT) said freight-market conditions are tightening, but they attributed much of the shift to capacity leaving the market rather than a broad-based demand rebound.
Speaking at a Bank of America transportation conference, Brad Hicks, executive vice president and president of Dedicated Contract Services, said the company has seen “strength” begin in the fourth quarter and persist into the current year, with spot-market pricing changes beginning to move into contract freight. However, Hicks said demand has remained largely steady.
Josh Phelan, senior vice president of truckload operations, said the “capacity tightness is real,” adding that supply-side changes that began in the fourth quarter continued into the first quarter rather than easing seasonally.
Regulatory enforcement cited as a driver of capacity exits
Hicks pointed to several regulatory and enforcement-related factors that he said are contributing to capacity leaving the trucking market. These included state-by-state actions affecting non-domiciled drivers, enforcement of English language proficiency rules, enforcement against cabotage involving Mexican and Canadian-based carriers running domestic freight, and pressure on driver training schools and electronic logging device providers.
“There’s not new laws, it’s really more around the enforcement,” Hicks said. He described the process as a “slower drip” rather than a sudden removal of capacity.
Phelan said the supply correction appears to be “on solid footing” and is making its way into customer markets, though he said the major unknown remains demand. He said demand appears “marginally better,” but supply is the main driver of rates.
Andrew Hall from investor relations said food demand remains good, industrial demand “feels okay,” and purchasing managers’ index data has improved for four months. However, he said J.B. Hunt would not characterize the overall demand environment as robust. He also said housing, a key potential beneficiary for truckload demand, has not shown enough movement to create enthusiasm.
Rates expected to rise, with timing varying by business
J.B. Hunt executives said the rate environment has improved. Phelan said the company is seeing bid activity outside the normal cycle and that “the ability to raise rates exists again for the first time in 3 or 4 years.”
Hicks said truckload and brokerage market rates could be “at or north of 20%” over a two-year stack through this cycle and into next year’s bid cycle. Phelan said double-digit increases could be achieved in the back half of bid season, though those would not represent a full calendar-year rate increase.
For Dedicated Contract Services, Hicks said annual rate movement is typically governed by contract terms and generally falls in the 2% to 4% range. He said he would expect roughly 3% to 3.5% as contracts adjust, though certain cost pressures, including driver wages, could require separate customer conversations.
Hicks said driver markets have begun tightening in certain regions, including Texas and parts of the Rust Belt such as Ohio, Indiana and Michigan. He said J.B. Hunt has reintroduced some sign-on bonuses after two years without them, although Hall said those bonuses are limited to a handful of cities and are “small dollars” compared with past extremes.
Dedicated pipeline at record levels
In Dedicated Contract Services, Hicks said J.B. Hunt’s sales target remains 800 to 1,000 net tractor additions. While the fleet was flat in the first quarter due to downsizing at some accounts and a couple of losses, Hicks said the pipeline is at record levels.
He said J.B. Hunt added 40 new names to its dedicated portfolio last year, which he described as an important entry point for future growth. Hicks said the company remains disciplined about the kind of dedicated business it accepts and is not seeking to build “capacity fleets” that could quickly shift back to one-way freight when market conditions change.
Hicks also highlighted the company’s focus on improving profitability and lowering its cost to serve. He said J.B. Hunt has increased its run-rate savings to $130 million from the $100 million run rate discussed in the fourth quarter.
“We do feel like we have to continue to repair our margins,” Hicks said.
Intermodal growth tied to service, fuel and truckload comparisons
On intermodal, executives said revenue per load has been affected largely by mix, with faster growth in the Eastern network than in Transcontinental lanes. Hall said Eastern network growth involves shorter lengths of haul, which lowers revenue per load.
Hicks said J.B. Hunt has taken rate on headhaul lanes but has had to give rate on backhaul lanes, muting the overall pricing effect. He said intermodal may not see a meaningful opportunity to move rates until the next bid cycle, unlike truckload and brokerage, where more frequent bid opportunities exist.
Executives said the Eastern network is benefiting from strong rail service and remains more directly competitive with truckload. Hall said intermodal historically offers a 10% to 15% discount to truckload in the East, and with current fuel levels, that discount is pushing 20% to 25%.
Hicks said that if shippers are facing higher brokerage rates, higher truckload rates and elevated diesel prices, they should be looking to convert more freight to intermodal. He said J.B. Hunt has invested in capacity and has room to grow before adding more containers.
Technology and brokerage profitability remain priorities
Executives also discussed technology initiatives, including automation and artificial intelligence. Hicks said J.B. Hunt is using technology as part of a broader business transformation, with AI helping the company solve problems faster and more efficiently.
Phelan said AI is being used and developed in brokerage for load prioritization, carrier matching, and track-and-trace functions. In the asset and drop-trailer business, he said AI could help improve demand forecasting, dwell management, empty-move decisions and trailer turns.
In Integrated Capacity Solutions, Phelan said the brokerage unit saw 10% volume growth in the first quarter, but gross margin was squeezed by the tighter truckload market. He said the company does not plan for ICS to lose money and expects repricing through bid season and spot opportunities to support gross margin.
Asked about potential rail mergers, Hicks said J.B. Hunt is confident in its leadership position regardless of the outcome, citing its relationships with rail partners and its role in the shipping market. Phelan added that if the objective is to expand the overall intermodal market, that would be positive for J.B. Hunt as the market leader.
Summing up the market backdrop, Hicks said: “Steady as she goes. Rates are going up.”
About J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ:JBHT)
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc is a leading provider of transportation and logistics solutions headquartered in Lowell, Arkansas. The company offers a comprehensive suite of services designed to move freight efficiently across North America, including intermodal, dedicated contract services, full truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL), final mile delivery and specialized transport.
In its intermodal segment, J.B. Hunt leverages a network of rail and truck assets to transport containers and trailers on major U.S.
