Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Releases FY 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) issued an update on its FY 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 1.270-1.320 for the period, compared to the consensus earnings per share estimate of 1.220. The company issued revenue guidance of $3.0 billion-$3.1 billion, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $3.0 billion. Geo Group also updated its Q3 2026 guidance to 0.350-0.370 EPS.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

A number of equities analysts have commented on GEO shares. Zacks Research upgraded Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research note on Monday, July 20th. Northland Securities upped their target price on Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research report on Friday, June 26th. Wall Street Zen cut Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Saturday, July 25th. Weiss Ratings upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a research report on Tuesday, June 9th. Finally, JonesTrading raised their target price on Geo Group from $33.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Thursday. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have assigned a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, Geo Group has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $40.00.

Geo Group Stock Performance

Shares of NYSE:GEO traded up $0.25 during trading on Friday, reaching $30.39. The stock had a trading volume of 342,023 shares, compared to its average volume of 2,109,680. The stock has a fifty day simple moving average of $29.11 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $21.65. The company has a quick ratio of 1.75, a current ratio of 1.75 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06. Geo Group has a 52 week low of $12.51 and a 52 week high of $32.25. The firm has a market capitalization of $4.06 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.50, a P/E/G ratio of 1.87 and a beta of 0.79.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last announced its earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.29 by $0.08. Geo Group had a net margin of 10.00% and a return on equity of 9.43%. The firm had revenue of $732.07 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $721.43 million. During the same quarter last year, the firm posted $0.22 EPS. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 15.1% on a year-over-year basis. As a group, analysts anticipate that Geo Group will post 1.2 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Geo Group News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter results exceeded expectations. GEO reported adjusted earnings of $0.37 per share, ahead of the roughly $0.28–$0.29 consensus, while revenue rose 15.1% year over year to $732.1 million, topping estimates of approximately $721.4 million. GEO Group Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
• Positive Sentiment: Full-year guidance was raised above consensus. GEO now expects 2026 EPS of $1.27–$1.32, compared with consensus of $1.22, and revenue of $3.0–$3.1 billion. Management also outlined net income guidance of $168 million–$175 million and expects additional ICE facility activations by the end of 2026, supporting potential revenue growth. GEO 2026 Net Income Guidance and ICE Facility Activations
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst sentiment improved. JonesTrading raised its price target from $33 to $40 and maintained a Buy rating, citing the company’s earnings performance, guidance and operational updates. JonesTrading Raises GEO Price Target
• Neutral Sentiment: Expansion activity is becoming more visible. GEO has posted hiring opportunities connected with a planned ICE detention facility in Colorado, indicating progress toward facility activation but also highlighting the company’s dependence on government contracts. GEO Hiring for Colorado ICE Facility
• Negative Sentiment: Fourth-quarter EPS guidance was below expectations. GEO forecast fourth-quarter EPS of $0.28–$0.31 versus consensus of $0.33, creating a near-term earnings concern despite stronger full-year guidance. Third-quarter EPS guidance of $0.35–$0.37 was above the $0.30 consensus, making the outlook mixed. GEO Q2 Earnings Beat and Guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Regulatory and reputational risks remain. Lawmakers have demanded answers from ICE and GEO regarding alleged violations at the Moshannon Valley Processing Center, which could increase scrutiny of GEO’s detention operations and government-contract exposure. Lawmakers Question Moshannon Valley Processing Center

Institutional Trading of Geo Group

A number of hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of GEO. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. increased its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 245.1% during the 2nd quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $26,000 after purchasing an additional 782 shares during the period. NewEdge Advisors LLC boosted its stake in Geo Group by 81.9% during the first quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $54,000 after buying an additional 839 shares in the last quarter. Militia Capital Partners LP raised its stake in shares of Geo Group by 122.6% in the 2nd quarter. Militia Capital Partners LP now owns 6,900 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $165,000 after buying an additional 3,800 shares in the last quarter. United Services Automobile Association bought a new position in shares of Geo Group during the 1st quarter worth about $260,000. Finally, Guggenheim Capital LLC bought a new position in shares of Geo Group during the 4th quarter worth about $174,000. 76.10% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.