Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) lifts full-year outlook and grows adjusted EBITDA 17%, but cash burn widens

Posted by Casey Walker on Nov 5th, 2026

What happened

Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) raised its full-year 2026 outlook after third-quarter gross bookings grew 11% and revenue grew 12% from a year earlier.

The company now expects full-year gross bookings of $131.4 billion to $131.9 billion, up from a prior range of $129.5 billion to $130.8 billion. Revenue guidance moved to $16.37 billion to $16.43 billion from $16.05 billion to $16.22 billion. The forecast for adjusted EBITDA margin expansion rose to 1.8 to 2.0 points from 1.5 to 1.75 points.

In the quarter, revenue reached $4.94 billion, against $4.41 billion a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA rose 17% to $1.69 billion. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 34.2%, up 135 basis points from 32.9%. CEO Ariane Gorin said Expedia Group beat the high end of its guidance, citing resilient travel demand and strong execution.

Key numbers

Metric	Latest	Change	Source
Gross Bookings	$34.01 billion	from $30.73 billion, +11%	SEC 8-K, Q3 2026 earnings release
Revenue	$4.94 billion	from $4.41 billion, +12%	SEC 8-K, Q3 2026 earnings release
Adjusted EBITDA	$1.69 billion	from $1.45 billion, +17%	SEC 8-K, Q3 2026 earnings release
Adjusted EBITDA margin	34.2%	from 32.9%, +135 basis points	SEC 8-K, Q3 2026 earnings release
Free cash flow (outflow)	$1.40 billion	from $686 million, +104%	SEC 8-K, Q3 2026 earnings release
Shares repurchased in Q3	$576 million		SEC 8-K, Q3 2026 earnings release

Where the growth came from

Business-to-business partners drove the revenue gain. B2B gross bookings grew 19% and B2B revenue grew 23% to $1.71 billion. B2C gross bookings grew 7% and B2C revenue grew 6%.

By booking model, merchant gross bookings rose 15% to $21.65 billion and agency bookings rose 4% to $12.36 billion. By OptimistFi's calculation, merchant bookings made up 63.7% of the total, up from 61.4% a year earlier.

Lodging gross bookings grew 10%. Booked room nights rose 7% to 115.7 million and the average daily rate rose 2% to $215.00. Air went the other way, with booked air tickets down 6% and air revenue down 7%.

Stock perps: every US stock that trades as a perpetual future, by leverage, live

Why it matters

OptimistFi has argued that Expedia Group works if its merchant-led platform stays a cost-effective place to transact. It must also turn travel demand into higher-margin revenue and strong cash flow. The quarter supports the revenue and margin parts of that view. Merchant bookings are taking a larger share, and OptimistFi calculates that revenue rose $526 million from a year earlier.

Margins inside the segments tell a mixed story. B2C adjusted EBITDA margin widened to 43.5% from 40.7%. B2B margin slipped to 27.5% from 28.9%. The faster-growing segment carries the lower margin.

Operating income rose 28% to $1.33 billion, but net income attributable to Expedia Group grew 7% to $1.03 billion. Between those two lines, the income statement shows a tax provision of $264 million versus $167 million. The reconciliation lists a gain on minority equity investments of $133 million in the third quarter of 2025 against $9 million this year.

The cash flow caveat

Free cash flow was an outflow of $1.40 billion, wider than the $686 million outflow in the third quarter of 2025. Operating cash flow was negative $1.16 billion against negative $497 million a year earlier.

Over nine months, operating cash flow was positive $4.25 billion versus $3.58 billion in the same period of 2025. The case depends on strong cash flow, so the quarterly outflow is the strongest counterweight to the earnings beat.

Buybacks and the dividend

Expedia Group repurchased about 2 million shares for $576 million in the third quarter. Treasury stock purchases for the nine months totaled $1.73 billion, up from $1.60 billion a year earlier. Cash and cash equivalents ended September at $5.04 billion, down from $5.41 billion on Dec. 31, 2025.

Diluted earnings per share rose 15% to $8.42, faster than the 7% rise in net income. Diluted weighted average shares were 122.28 million versus 131.01 million a year earlier. The company paid its $0.48 quarterly dividend on Sept. 17.

What's next

The $0.48 dividend declared Nov. 4 is payable Dec. 10 to holders of record on Nov. 18. Management webcasts its earnings call at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time on Nov. 4.

For the fourth quarter, Expedia Group guides to gross bookings of $27.9 billion to $28.4 billion, up 3.3% to 5.2%. It guides to revenue of $3.69 billion to $3.75 billion, up 4.0% to 5.7%, and adjusted EBITDA of $830 million to $880 million. That is slower growth than the third quarter.

The fourth-quarter report is the next test. Results inside those ranges with positive free cash flow would support the case. A miss or another wider outflow would weaken it.