Sidoti Issues Optimistic Forecast for Geo Group Earnings

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO) – Analysts at Sidoti increased their FY2026 earnings per share estimates for Geo Group in a note issued to investors on Thursday, October 8th. Sidoti analyst B. Mccarthy now anticipates that the real estate investment trust will post earnings of $1.37 per share for the year, up from their previous estimate of $1.30. The consensus estimate for Geo Group’s current full-year earnings is $1.31 per share. Sidoti also issued estimates for Geo Group’s Q1 2027 earnings at $0.40 EPS, Q2 2027 earnings at $0.47 EPS, Q3 2027 earnings at $0.49 EPS, Q4 2027 earnings at $0.51 EPS, FY2027 earnings at $1.86 EPS, Q1 2028 earnings at $0.45 EPS, Q2 2028 earnings at $0.50 EPS, Q3 2028 earnings at $0.51 EPS and FY2028 earnings at $1.98 EPS.

Other research analysts also recently issued reports about the stock. Wall Street Zen downgraded shares of Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Saturday, July 25th. UBS Group restated a “buy” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research report on Tuesday. Zacks Research raised Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research note on Monday, July 20th. Noble Financial reissued an “outperform” rating on shares of Geo Group in a report on Monday, August 10th. Finally, Northland Securities raised their price target on shares of Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Friday, June 26th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, four have issued a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, Geo Group currently has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $40.00.

Geo Group Price Performance

GEO stock opened at $30.99 on Friday. The company has a quick ratio of 1.65, a current ratio of 1.65 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.00. The firm has a market cap of $4.08 billion, a P/E ratio of 14.62, a P/E/G ratio of 1.67 and a beta of 0.77. The company’s 50-day moving average price is $31.26 and its two-hundred day moving average price is $26.66. Geo Group has a 12 month low of $12.51 and a 12 month high of $33.17.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last released its earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.29 by $0.08. The firm had revenue of $732.07 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $721.43 million. Geo Group had a return on equity of 10.42% and a net margin of 10.31%.The company’s revenue was up 15.1% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period in the prior year, the company posted $0.22 EPS.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Geo Group

Several institutional investors and hedge funds have recently made changes to their positions in the stock. Pentwater Capital Management LP bought a new position in Geo Group during the second quarter worth $312,698,000. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC grew its holdings in Geo Group by 14.2% in the first quarter. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC now owns 5,314,006 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $89,328,000 after purchasing an additional 661,281 shares during the period. Militia Capital Management LLC bought a new stake in Geo Group in the first quarter valued at $3,634,000. Hsbc Holdings PLC bought a new stake in Geo Group in the second quarter valued at $118,673,000. Finally, Legal & General Group Plc acquired a new position in shares of Geo Group during the second quarter valued at about $9,165,000. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

Insider Buying and Selling

In related news, insider Ronald A. Brack sold 7,000 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Friday, August 21st. The stock was sold at an average price of $32.00, for a total transaction of $224,000.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider directly owned 71,614 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $2,291,648. This trade represents a 8.90% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this hyperlink. Also, VP Matthew Albence sold 11,797 shares of Geo Group stock in a transaction dated Friday, September 11th. The stock was sold at an average price of $31.45, for a total value of $371,015.65. Following the transaction, the vice president directly owned 87,602 shares in the company, valued at $2,755,082.90. The trade was a 11.87% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. In the last quarter, insiders sold 28,797 shares of company stock valued at $911,916. 4.98% of the stock is owned by company insiders.

Key Headlines Impacting Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Sidoti raised its earnings outlook: The firm increased its FY2026 EPS forecast to $1.37 from $1.30, FY2027 EPS to $1.86 from $1.67, Q1 2027 EPS to $0.40 from $0.34, Q2 2027 EPS to $0.47 from $0.42, Q3 2027 EPS to $0.49 from $0.44 and Q4 2027 EPS to $0.51 from $0.47. Sidoti projects FY2028 EPS of $1.98, indicating expectations for continued earnings growth.
• Positive Sentiment: Broker ratings remain supportive: JonesTrading assigned GEO a Buy rating, while Northland Securities maintained an Outperform rating and a $40 price target. Northland expects FY2027 EPS of $1.54, below Sidoti’s estimate but still reflecting anticipated profitability.
• Positive Sentiment: Debt-management actions may improve financial flexibility: GEO amended and restated its credit agreement while maintaining a $550 million facility. The company also announced plans to redeem all senior secured notes due in 2029 and amended and extended its revolving credit facility, developments that could reduce refinancing risk and provide greater shareholder flexibility. Geo Group Enhances Credit Facility and Shareholder Flexibility
• Neutral Sentiment: Valuation and execution remain key considerations: GEO is trading near its 52-week high, so investors may demand evidence that the higher earnings forecasts are achievable. The company’s debt levels also remain an important factor despite the recent refinancing actions.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group, Inc (NYSE: GEO) is a provider of correctional, detention and community-reentry services. The company designs, finances, develops and manages secure facilities for federal, state and local government agencies, as well as certain international government clients. Its facilities house individuals in pretrial detention, immigration detention and correctional programs.

GEO also provides correctional and behavioral healthcare, transportation and security services, and electronic monitoring technologies.