Palantir’s U.S. commercial revenue overtakes government, outlook rises (NASDAQ: PLTR)

What happened

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) reported third-quarter revenue of $2.31 billion, up 96% from a year earlier, and raised its full-year 2026 guidance.

U.S. commercial revenue grew 148% to $984 million. It passed U.S. government revenue of $953 million, which Palantir says has not happened before. Commercial customers now bring in more U.S. revenue than government agencies, which bears on how durable the growth looks.

Palantir now expects full-year revenue of $8.53 billion to $8.53 billion, adjusted income from operations of $5.25 billion to $5.25 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $4.8 billion to $5.0 billion. It still expects GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of this year.

Key numbers

Metric	Latest	Change	Source
Q3 2026 revenue	$2.31 billion	from $1.18 billion, +96%	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Q3 2026 U.S. commercial revenue	$984 million	+148%	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Q3 2026 adjusted income from operations	$1.43 billion	from $600.54 million, +137.6%	Calculated from SEC 8-K
Q3 2026 adjusted free cash flow	$1.22 billion	from $539.86 million, +125.3%	Calculated from SEC 8-K
Q3 2026 total contract value closed	$2.92 billion	+6%	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Full-year 2026 revenue guidance	$8.53 billion to $8.53 billion		SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1

Read more: Palantir Technologies (PLTR) company research

The U.S. commercial crossover

Commercial growth outran government growth. U.S. commercial revenue rose 29% from the second quarter. U.S. government revenue rose 18% from the second quarter and 96% from a year earlier.

Total U.S. revenue reached $1.94 billion, up 119% from a year earlier and 23% from the second quarter. For the full year, Palantir now expects U.S. commercial revenue above $3.56 billion, growth of at least 143%.

CEO Alex Karp said in the release that "the Sovereign AI moment is purpose-built for Palantir."

Stock perps: every US stock that trades as a perpetual future, by leverage, live

Why it matters

Profit grew faster than sales. Adjusted income from operations was $1.43 billion, a 62% margin, against $600.54 million and 51% a year earlier. OptimistFi calculates the increase at $826.30 million, or 137.6%, on revenue that added $1.13 billion.

Adjusted free cash flow was $1.22 billion, a 53% margin. A year earlier it was $539.86 million, a 46% margin. That is an increase of 125.3% by OptimistFi's calculation.

OptimistFi has argued that Palantir's stock works only if customers keep standardizing mission-critical operations on its software, rather than treating it as an expensive implementation layer. Commercial revenue overtaking government revenue and wider margins both fit that view, so the report strengthens the case.

Adjusted versus GAAP profit

The adjusted figures leave out stock-based compensation and related employer payroll taxes. Stock-based compensation was $318.89 million in the quarter, up from $172.32 million a year earlier. That is a rise of 85.1% by OptimistFi's calculation.

GAAP income from operations was $1.08 billion, a 47% margin.

What the contract data show

Bookings grew far more slowly than revenue. Total contract value closed in the quarter was $2.92 billion, up 6% from a year earlier. U.S. commercial total contract value was $1.46 billion, up 11%. U.S. commercial remaining deal value was $6.52 billion, up 79% from a year earlier and 4% from the second quarter.

Palantir closed 212 deals of at least $1 million, 107 of at least $5 million and 64 of at least $10 million.

The company says most of its contracts can be terminated, including for convenience. It says remaining deal value may exclude some commercial contract value after reviews of customers' financial condition. It also lists long sales cycles and complex, lengthy implementations among its risks. A guidance raise does not by itself show the growth is durable.

What's next

For the fourth quarter, Palantir expects revenue of $2.65 billion to $2.65 billion and adjusted income from operations of $1.64 billion to $1.64 billion.

The next test is the fourth-quarter 2026 earnings release. Results inside those ranges would back the raised full-year outlook. Contract-value growth that stays well below revenue growth would keep the durability question open.

More from OptimistFi

• PLTR stock: research and coverage of Palantir Technologies
• Stock research on every company OptimistFi covers

From OptimistFi Perps