TKO (NYSE: TKO) raises its outlook a second time and UFC revenue jumps 60%

What happened

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: TKO) raised its 2026 guidance for the second time this year and plans more share buybacks.

Third-quarter revenue rose 21% to $1.36 billion. Net income reached $277.9 million, up from $106.8 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 54% to $555.7 million, and the Adjusted EBITDA margin widened to 41% from 32%.

Guidance now calls for 2026 revenue of $5.79 billion to $5.83 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $2.29 billion to $2.31 billion. Both ranges sit above those TKO set in August and in February.

Key numbers

Metric	Latest	Change	Source
Q3 2026 revenue	$1.36 billion	from $1.12 billion, +21%	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA	$555.7 million	from $360.2 million, +54%	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Q3 2026 net income	$277.9 million	from $106.8 million, +$171.1 million	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Adjusted EBITDA margin, Q3	41%	from 32%, +9 percentage points	Calculated from SEC 8-K
FY2026 revenue guidance	$5.79 billion to $5.83 billion	+$10 million at midpoint versus August	Calculated from SEC 8-K
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance	$2.29 billion to $2.31 billion	+$15 million at midpoint versus August	Calculated from SEC 8-K

Read more: TKO Group (TKO) company research

Where the growth came from

UFC did most of the work. Its revenue rose 60% to $519.2 million, a $194.0 million gain. Its Adjusted EBITDA rose 72% to $285.3 million, lifting the segment margin to 55% from 51%.

The filing ties UFC's media rights growth to higher fees under the new Skydance distribution agreement that began in January 2026. It also cites one additional Numbered Event and one additional Fight Night. Live events revenue reflected the record-setting UFC 329 and two additional events. So a busier calendar and one standout card helped alongside the new contract.

WWE was flat on the top line. Revenue slipped 1% to $399.3 million. Live events and hospitality revenue fell $24.8 million, which the filing links to three fewer Main Roster Premium Live Events. Adjusted EBITDA still rose 5% to $217.2 million as expenses fell. Media rights revenue gained $6.9 million, helped by the ESPN agreement that began in September 2025.

IMG revenue rose 16% to $391.3 million. New tennis and soccer marketing deals and FIFA World Cup 2026 hospitality sales at On Location led the gain. The absence of the biennial Ryder Cup partly offset it. IMG's Adjusted EBITDA reached $115.9 million from $61.4 million.

Stock perps: every US stock that trades as a perpetual future, by leverage, live

Cash and buybacks

Free cash flow was $449.9 million, up from $398.9 million a year earlier. TKO ended September with $630.9 million of cash and gross debt of $4.65 billion.

So far this year, TKO has returned more than $1.6 billion to equity holders through share repurchases, dividends and related distributions. It paid a quarterly dividend of $0.79 per share on Sept. 30, an aggregate distribution of approximately $150 million.

More buybacks are coming. Under a board authorization of up to $3 billion for Class A shares, approximately $936.0 million remained as of Nov. 4. TKO expects to repurchase the balance. It intends to fund it mainly from additional debt and cash on hand, with timing and amount at its discretion.

A Rule 10b5-1 plan of up to $200 million, entered Aug. 6, finished Oct. 30. It bought 451,377 shares for approximately $85.5 million in the third quarter and 417,795 shares for approximately $73.4 million from Oct. 1 to completion.

Why it matters

OptimistFi has argued that TKO's value rests on UFC and WWE staying must-have programming while management turns that demand into higher-margin cash flow. The quarter fits that view. The margin widened and UFC's media rights fees rose under a new contract.

The guidance raise itself is small. Against August, the revenue midpoint rose $10 million to $5.81 billion and the Adjusted EBITDA midpoint rose $15 million. Against February, the midpoints are up $85 million and $40 million. These are OptimistFi's calculations from the ranges in the filing.

The outlook depends on TKO staging all live events, including those in the Middle East region, as currently planned, the filing says. Buybacks funded mainly with new debt come as net interest expense reached $69.9 million in the quarter, against $50.8 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA also excludes certain legal costs, which were $34.6 million in the quarter against $19.2 million and include UFC antitrust litigation.

UFC's quarter also had two additional events and the record-setting UFC 329, both cited by the filing as drivers. Growth of this size depends partly on the event calendar.

What's next

TKO hosts its earnings call at 5:00 p.m. ET on Nov. 4, 2026. Management said it will give more detail on its 2026 guidance.

Any change to the live-event plans, including those in the Middle East region, would weaken the story, since the raised ranges assume every event goes ahead as planned. The pace of buybacks against the remaining authorization is the other item to watch. TKO has said it will set timing and amount at its discretion.

More from OptimistFi

• TKO stock: research and coverage of TKO Group
• Stock research on every company OptimistFi covers

From OptimistFi Perps