Jupiter Mines Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

Jupiter Mines (ASX:JMS) reported a “strong operating result” for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, with higher sales and production at its Tshipi manganese operation and slightly lower unit costs in U.S. dollar terms, despite currency headwinds, management said on the company’s December quarter earnings call.

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Brad Rogers said sales and production increased quarter-on-quarter and remained in line with full-year targets. He also pointed to steady cash balances at both Tshipi and the Jupiter corporate level, even after semi-annual payments for taxes and royalties during the period.

Operating performance: higher sales, more high-grade ore

Rogers said Tshipi recorded manganese ore sales of 867,619 tons in the quarter, up 4% from the prior quarter and up 27% versus the prior corresponding period. Production totaled 840,688 tons, slightly higher quarter-on-quarter and up 13% year-over-year.

He noted the production mix shifted toward higher-grade ore during the quarter. High-grade ore production rose 10% quarter-on-quarter, while overall production rose about 1%, a mix that Rogers said “sets us up for a good mix of sales” in upcoming quarters.

On costs, he said operating costs were $2.24 USD FOB per dmtu for the quarter, consistent with company expectations and slightly better than the prior quarter in U.S. dollar terms. Rogers emphasized that result came despite the South African rand strengthening during the December quarter, which typically pressures reported U.S. dollar costs.

Mining costs were down 5% quarter-on-quarter, which Rogers attributed in part to seasonal rain typically seen in the December quarter. Land logistics were described as flat compared with the prior quarter.

Safety update: two minor lost time injuries

From a safety perspective, Rogers said the operation had two minor lost time injuries during the quarter, both involving slips or trips. One incident involved a worker tripping over an exposed rock and spraining an ankle, and the other involved a cleaner sustaining lower leg soft tissue injuries after slipping while performing duties. Rogers said site teams were responding with mitigations and communications focused on ongoing diligence around these risks, including issues such as adequate lighting.

Manganese market: supportive prices, low China port stocks

Rogers characterized market conditions during and after the quarter as supportive. He cited rising spot prices for the grade of ore Tshipi sells, noting FOB spot was $3.46 per dmtu at the end of December and had risen to $3.68 per dmtu as of the call. Spot had been $3.36 per dmtu at the end of September.

Average realized prices for the quarter were 6% higher than in the September quarter, he said. Freight rates were also slightly lower, with Rogers citing about $25 per ton at 31 December compared with $23.40 “today,” and he said rates had been trading in a relatively tight range of roughly $23.5–$26 per ton for several months.

As a key indicator, Rogers pointed to manganese ore stockpiles at Chinese ports, which he said were around 4.4 million tons and had remained near that level for much of the past six to nine months. He compared that with what he described as a prior five-year average of roughly 5.8 million tons, calling current levels “quite a bit lower” than the longer-run average.

In response to a question about whether positive momentum could persist, Rogers said downstream alloy demand had been more robust than many market participants expected, helping absorb elevated supply. He cited several factors he said were supportive:

• A stronger Chinese yuan versus the U.S. dollar, which supports U.S. dollar-reported manganese prices
• Greater efficiency from newer renewable energy-powered alloy plants in China
• Potential seasonal stocking ahead of Chinese New Year
• Some supply impacts that reduced exports from certain countries over the past six months

Rogers also flagged uncertainty around potential unquantified silicomanganese alloy stocks further downstream, saying the company did not have data on that point and that some market participants believe there may be additional inventory held beyond alloy plants.

Overall, he said many analyst forecasts for the next six months had been revised higher compared with earlier expectations, reflecting both supportive fundamentals and the fact that prevailing prices had outperformed earlier forecasts. He described the current market as “reasonably balanced” on supply and demand, with shipping rates also in a favorable range.

Financials: EBITDA impacted by FX; cash steady after taxes and royalties

Rogers said Tshipi’s EBITDA was down 19% quarter-on-quarter, attributing the decline “mostly” to foreign exchange losses tied to the stronger rand. He added that the EBITDA level was still within the typical range for Tshipi under the prevailing pricing environment.

Tshipi ended December with cash of about AUD 137 million, down 2% from the end of September. Rogers said the balance was steady given the semi-annual payment of taxes and royalties during the quarter and reflected “good operating cash generation.” He also said cash at the Jupiter level was “basically steady” quarter-on-quarter.

Looking ahead, Rogers said Jupiter’s interim dividend as of 31 December would be decided in the next month, noting the process involves Tshipi first recommending a dividend and Jupiter then communicating the outcome to the market.

Exxaro transaction: completion expected by late February

A major corporate development discussed on the call was Exxaro’s pending acquisition of certain manganese interests from Ntsimbintle Holdings and OM Holdings. Rogers said Exxaro had announced the transaction was now unconditional and expected completion on or before 27 February.

Upon completion, Rogers said Exxaro would join Jupiter as a co-investor in Tshipi under the existing shareholders’ agreement, replacing the exiting shareholders. He said governance at the asset level would remain unchanged, with joint control continuing and key management appointments still requiring agreement from both shareholders.

In response to analyst questions, Rogers said there would be no change to the current management team at Tshipi, which continues to be led by Ezekiel Lotlhare. He said there would be changes at the board level as Exxaro nominees replace prior Ntsimbintle appointments.

At the Jupiter shareholding level, Rogers said Exxaro would become Jupiter’s largest shareholder by acquiring 19.99% of Jupiter shares from Ntsimbintle Holdings. He said the agreed price was 3.69 ZAR per share, which he translated as “a little over AUD 0.33 per share” at current exchange rates, compared with a trading price he cited of around AUD 0.285 per share at the time of the call.

Rogers added that any dividend declared by Tshipi relating to the 31 December period would be a pre-completion matter decided under the existing structure, describing dividends as “permitted leakage” typical in such transactions.

In closing remarks, Rogers reiterated that management welcomed Exxaro’s entry, describing it as supportive for value growth at Tshipi and aligning with a shared strategic view around growth through consolidation in the Kalahari.

About Jupiter Mines (ASX:JMS)

Jupiter Mines Limited engages in the development and operation of mineral resource properties. It primarily explores for manganese deposits. The company's flagship project is the Tshipi Manganese mine located in South Africa. Jupiter Mines Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Perth, Australia.