ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Posts Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.21 EPS

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) released its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The energy producer reported $1.02 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $1.23 by ($0.21), Briefing.com reports. The firm had revenue of $13.86 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $14.35 billion. ConocoPhillips had a return on equity of 13.64% and a net margin of 14.25%.The company’s quarterly revenue was down 3.7% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period last year, the firm earned $1.98 EPS.

Here are the key takeaways from ConocoPhillips’ conference call:

• ConocoPhillips said it delivered a strong 2025, outperforming guidance on CapEx, operating costs, and production, and successfully integrated Marathon Oil—doubling synergy capture and realizing about $1 billion of one‑time benefits while still driving pro forma production growth.
• For 2026 management is targeting a combined ~$1 billion reduction in CapEx and operating costs, guiding to roughly $12B CapEx and $10.2B OpEx with modest production growth (2.23–2.26 mmboe/d) while continuing to return ~45% of CFO and grow the base dividend.
• Major projects and LNG progress underpin the multi‑year cash plan—LNG offtake has grown to ~10 mtpa, projects are >80% complete with NFS expected to start in H2 and Willow ~50% complete (first oil early 2029), supporting management’s target of a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.
• The company emphasized a strong liquidity and capital returns profile—cash and short‑term investments of $7.4B (plus $1.1B long‑term liquid investments), nearly $2B net‑debt reduction in 2025, $3B+ of asset sales toward a $5B divestiture target, and $9B returned to shareholders in 2025.
• Near‑term risks remain as pre‑productive CapEx (notably Willow) keeps current pre‑dividend free cash flow breakeven in the mid‑$40s (management expects it to fall to the low‑$30s by 2030), and Q1 2026 production guidance incorporates estimated weather‑related downtime from Winter Storm Fern.

ConocoPhillips Trading Down 2.7%

Shares of NYSE COP traded down $2.91 on Thursday, reaching $104.68. 5,250,159 shares of the company traded hands, compared to its average volume of 9,142,874. The stock has a market capitalization of $129.36 billion, a PE ratio of 14.81 and a beta of 0.32. ConocoPhillips has a fifty-two week low of $79.88 and a fifty-two week high of $108.44. The company has a current ratio of 1.32, a quick ratio of 1.18 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35. The company has a 50 day moving average of $95.76 and a 200 day moving average of $93.52.

Key Headlines Impacting ConocoPhillips

Here are the key news stories impacting ConocoPhillips this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Marathon transaction improves scale and production profile; some investors and “smart money” view the deal as a long-term catalyst that could lift cash flow and reserves, supporting upside despite the short-term miss. Why Smart Money Is Piling Into COP After Earnings Miss
• Positive Sentiment: Momentum into the quarter had pushed COP to a 52-week high and earned an RS-rating upgrade recently, signaling technical strength and continued institutional interest. Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish on ConocoPhillips Stock?
• Neutral Sentiment: Unusual options activity suggests some traders are repositioning around volatility and earnings; this can increase short-term option-driven moves but is not a fundamental change. Looking At ConocoPhillips’s Recent Unusual Options Activity
• Neutral Sentiment: Company posted press release and slide deck for Q4 results — useful for drilling into guidance, production by basin, and capital allocation plans. View Press Release
• Negative Sentiment: Q4 earnings missed estimates: Non‑GAAP EPS $1.02 vs. $1.23 expected; revenue $13.86B vs. $14.35B expected. Management said lower realized commodity prices more than offset higher production (including Marathon contribution). That earnings/revenue miss is the primary driver of the stock weakness. ConocoPhillips Misses Q4 Earnings Estimates on Lower Prices
• Negative Sentiment: News outlets and analysts emphasize that weaker oil prices — not production — drove the profit shortfall; coverage notes the stock fell on the report as markets repriced near-term earnings sensitivity to oil. ConocoPhillips misses quarterly profit estimates on weaker oil prices
• Negative Sentiment: Macro backdrop: a modest rise in jobless claims and other macro headlines are weighing on oil demand expectations, adding pressure to energy names including COP. Jobless Claims Pop Up a Bit, Major Morning for Earnings

Insider Buying and Selling

In other ConocoPhillips news, CEO Ryan Michael Lance sold 500,708 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Friday, December 19th. The stock was sold at an average price of $92.50, for a total transaction of $46,315,490.00. Following the completion of the sale, the chief executive officer owned 325,972 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $30,152,410. The trade was a 60.57% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this hyperlink. Also, Director William H. Mcraven bought 5,768 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, November 10th. The shares were acquired at an average cost of $86.68 per share, with a total value of $499,970.24. Following the transaction, the director owned 5,768 shares in the company, valued at approximately $499,970.24. This represents a ∞ increase in their position. The SEC filing for this purchase provides additional information. Company insiders own 0.24% of the company’s stock.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On ConocoPhillips

A number of hedge funds have recently made changes to their positions in COP. CYBER HORNET ETFs LLC boosted its position in ConocoPhillips by 3.8% during the 3rd quarter. CYBER HORNET ETFs LLC now owns 3,571 shares of the energy producer’s stock worth $338,000 after purchasing an additional 131 shares during the period. Financial Engines Advisors L.L.C. lifted its stake in shares of ConocoPhillips by 2.6% during the third quarter. Financial Engines Advisors L.L.C. now owns 7,118 shares of the energy producer’s stock worth $673,000 after purchasing an additional 182 shares in the last quarter. Abel Hall LLC boosted its position in shares of ConocoPhillips by 7.2% in the third quarter. Abel Hall LLC now owns 3,108 shares of the energy producer’s stock worth $294,000 after buying an additional 209 shares during the period. Binnacle Investments Inc grew its stake in shares of ConocoPhillips by 12.2% in the third quarter. Binnacle Investments Inc now owns 1,947 shares of the energy producer’s stock valued at $184,000 after buying an additional 211 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Vance Wealth LLC grew its stake in shares of ConocoPhillips by 7.8% in the third quarter. Vance Wealth LLC now owns 2,951 shares of the energy producer’s stock valued at $279,000 after buying an additional 214 shares in the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 82.36% of the company’s stock.

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

COP has been the topic of several recent research reports. BMO Capital Markets reduced their price target on shares of ConocoPhillips from $110.00 to $105.00 and set an “outperform” rating on the stock in a report on Monday, December 15th. Royal Bank Of Canada lifted their price objective on ConocoPhillips from $113.00 to $118.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research report on Monday, October 13th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reiterated a “neutral” rating and set a $98.00 target price on shares of ConocoPhillips in a report on Tuesday, January 20th. Piper Sandler cut their price target on ConocoPhillips from $115.00 to $109.00 and set an “overweight” rating for the company in a report on Thursday, January 8th. Finally, Wells Fargo & Company initiated coverage on ConocoPhillips in a research note on Friday, October 17th. They set an “equal weight” rating and a $100.00 price objective on the stock. Sixteen equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, seven have given a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $110.96.

About ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is a Houston-based international energy company focused on exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Formed in 2002 through the merger of Conoco Inc and Phillips Petroleum Company, the firm operates as an independent upstream company that explores for, develops and produces crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids across a portfolio of global assets.

The company’s activities span conventional and unconventional resources and include onshore and offshore operations in multiple regions around the world.